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Abstract
Turkey is positioned in a complex security environment at the intersection of rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics, regional conflict cycles, and global power competition in the post-Cold War era. This study analyzes how Turkey's security architecture is being reshaped under demographic vulnerabilities and global-regional strategic pressures through a multidisciplinary perspective. The research examines Turkey's security challenges within a multilayered understanding, positioned at the intersection of international relations, security studies, demography, and sociology disciplines. The fundamental question of the study concerns through which mechanisms demographic vulnerabilities affect Turkey's national security architecture and foreign policy strategic autonomy; how this influence interacts with state capacity, regional power balance dynamics, and strategic calculations of global actors. The main hypothesis argues that as demographic vulnerabilities increase, Turkey's security architecture becomes more susceptible to external pressures; however, in areas where state capacity is strong, these pressures can be transformed into strategic opportunities. The research employs qualitative research methods, combining document analysis, discourse analysis, and process tracing techniques. Findings reveal that the demographic transformation Turkey has faced, particularly due to the mass migration wave from Syria after 2011, has profoundly affected security perceptions; although state capacity remains strong at the regional level, Turkey's maneuvering space has narrowed in the strategic calculations of global actors. The study emphasizes that the demographic-security nexus encompasses not only migration management but also broader dimensions such as regional power balance, alliance politics, and strategic autonomy. In conclusion, it is assessed that for Turkey to transform its demographic vulnerabilities into strategic opportunities, institutional capacity building, regional cooperation, and the integration of multilayered security policies are of critical importance.
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